Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.044924 0.051621 0.058596 0.066370 0.074763 0.083521 0.093322
2025-04-13 0.033130 0.042662 0.053258 0.065760 0.079962 0.095460 0.113520
2025-04-20 0.028478 0.040110 0.053697 0.070391 0.090019 0.112064 0.138403
2025-04-27 0.022293 0.034561 0.049644 0.068927 0.092345 0.119344 0.152319
2025-05-04 0.019290 0.032398 0.049195 0.071340 0.098887 0.131251 0.171393
2025-05-11 0.015761 0.028969 0.046680 0.070789 0.101520 0.138301 0.184610
2025-05-18 0.013842 0.027468 0.046435 0.072918 0.107310 0.149054 0.202197
2025-05-25 0.012070 0.025907 0.045896 0.074496 0.112294 0.158763 0.218518
2025-06-01 0.009584 0.022841 0.042935 0.072567 0.112566 0.162496 0.227457
2025-06-08 0.007553 0.020156 0.040234 0.070746 0.112779 0.166007 0.236015
2025-06-15 0.006695 0.019372 0.040277 0.072687 0.117932 0.175753 0.252326
2025-06-22 0.005765 0.018291 0.039746 0.073726 0.121822 0.183872 0.266625
2025-06-29 0.005171 0.017861 0.040350 0.076633 0.128596 0.196169 0.286814
2025-07-06 0.004094 0.016210 0.038839 0.076366 0.131039 0.202953 0.300227
2025-07-13 0.003975 0.016673 0.040903 0.081524 0.141100 0.219805 0.326602
2025-07-20 0.002959 0.014740 0.038641 0.079932 0.141593 0.224014 0.336796
2025-07-27 0.002605 0.014385 0.039128 0.082582 0.148102 0.236225 0.357341
2025-08-03 0.001971 0.013023 0.037624 0.081979 0.149878 0.242085 0.369675
2025-08-10 0.001700 0.012660 0.037961 0.084312 0.155909 0.253689 0.389528
2025-08-17 0.001418 0.012148 0.037948 0.086040 0.161047 0.264099 0.407860
2025-08-24 0.000937 0.010615 0.035705 0.083927 0.160404 0.266560 0.415701
2025-08-31 0.000584 0.009253 0.033620 0.081931 0.159824 0.269030 0.423506
2025-09-07 0.000477 0.009010 0.033935 0.084059 0.165474 0.280123 0.442783